Dot com bubble - Is history about to repeat itself?

Mar 9, 20243 min read

The dot com bubble peaked on March 10, 2000. Is history about to repeat itself?

The up tick rule rarely gets triggered even on big red days like March 5th. That's a clear sign short sellers have completely disappeared from the market. When the degen gamblers on max leverage try to exit their positions, it's going to be crickets all the way down.

Punching the biggest bully in the yard might seem cool in the movies, but when it comes to short selling I'd rather pick on the old, the weak, and the lame.

The stocks which have witnessed technical damage.

The ones showing poor relative strength to Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ). The stocks with no obvious buyers on the way down.

My current watchlist, organized by market cap:

Apple (AAPL)

Buffet's selling, falling out of the Mag 7, and the failure of Apple Vision Pro, AAPL should see a trendline break soon.

Google (GOOG)

"Go woke, go broke"

Broadcom (AVGO)

Broadcom (AVGO) doesn't satisfy my criteria but VMware shareholders (Michael Dell and other insiders owned 40% of VMware) taking profits should see the stock drop. The lackluster response to earnings indicates this might already be underway.

Tesla (TSLA)

TSLA is now a consensus short, so it's all about finding a good entry.

Advanced Micro Devices (AMD)

The rejection candle in AMD is tempting, but shorting here would be a YOLO trade. Setting a stop at a level the company has never traded at is discomforting.

Oracle (ORCL)

ORCL has a bizarre chart. One to watch.

Adobe (ADBE)

ADBE is no longer a part of the AI cool kids club.

Cisco (CSCO)

No rational investors left in this dot com darling CSCO

Intel (INTC)

M3 inside, Intel outside in a warehouse somewhere gathering dust.

PDD Holdings (PDD)

Having witnessed Temu grow exponentially, I'd not short PDD except as a quick trade. This is a stocking stuffer long.

Micron Technology (MU)

MU is a fundamental short - inventory problems, overvalued, etc. The rejection candle makes it tempting, but too high risk, especially given that insane relative strength.