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Flash Crash Update
The flash crash in the world’s most overvalued, crowd favorite stocks The flash crash in small caps The flash crash in crude oil The no...
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Apr 62 min read

The Permanent Portfolio
The outdated 60/40 portfolio fails in modern markets, as bonds no longer provide stability. A better approach is this Permanent Portfolio.
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Mar 267 min read

Thinking through the risks
Nassim Taleb, a derivatives trader turned writer, coined the term “anti-fragile”. Fragile objects break easily. Durable or sturdy objects...
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Feb 73 min read

Trump, Hoover, and the Roaring ‘20s Deja vu
This post compares Trump’s policies to the 1920s, forecasting shifts in the global economic landscape.
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Jan 228 min read

Via Negativa: Avoiding Recency Bias
A lot of people on FinTwit are once again trashing hedge funds and their 2/20 model because these funds failed to beat the SPX. This...
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Jan 52 min read

Preparing for a Minsky Moment
My first degree was in engineering. I grew up liking the natural sciences and thought the social sciences were full of crap – too touchy...
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Dec 16, 20247 min read

Thoughts on GOLD
It’s the question on top of everyone’s minds: is the gold bull market, which began in October 2023, over? Few things to note from the...
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Nov 17, 20242 min read

Macro Outlook - Danger Ahead!
This is a brief update because I’m actively watching the markets and trading this week. I chose the title ‘Danger Ahead’ because I’ve...
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Nov 13, 20243 min read

Trade Update: Banks and Bonds
Futures portfolio update The 10 year note futures (ZN_F) got stopped out this morning. I ended up giving back a little over half my...
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May 29, 20244 min read

Technical Short Ideas in a Strong Bull Market
Membership in the Telegram group with real-time updates is now closed. If you'd like to join, send me an email at...
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May 6, 20243 min read

Why does this week's move in the yen matter so much?
Membership in the Telegram group with real-time updates is now closed. If you'd like to join, send me an email at...
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May 2, 20245 min read


Ignore rates, focus on liquidity
There is a reason Fed officials and MSM want you to focus on rates - it works to their advantage. The Fed gets to say it is doing its job...
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Apr 13, 20243 min read
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