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Flash Crash Update
The flash crash in the world’s most overvalued, crowd favorite stocks The flash crash in small caps The flash crash in crude oil The no...
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Apr 62 min read

The Permanent Portfolio
The outdated 60/40 portfolio fails in modern markets, as bonds no longer provide stability. A better approach is this Permanent Portfolio.
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Mar 267 min read

Nvidia Singapore Sales: A Peek Behind the Curtain
Every tech company CFO knows the double Irish Dutch sandwich. Before you start fantasizing, no, this is not the theme of an OnlyFans...
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Mar 43 min read

Thinking through the risks
Nassim Taleb, a derivatives trader turned writer, coined the term “anti-fragile”. Fragile objects break easily. Durable or sturdy objects...
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Feb 73 min read

Monthly rollup | January 2025
Stocks Mentioned SonicShares Global Shipping ETF (BOAT), Bitcoin Miners ETF (WGMI), New Fortress Energy (NFE), Nvidia (NVDA), Schwab...
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Feb 116 min read

Trump, Hoover, and the Roaring ‘20s Deja vu
This post compares Trump’s policies to the 1920s, forecasting shifts in the global economic landscape.
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Jan 228 min read

Via Negativa: Avoiding Recency Bias
A lot of people on FinTwit are once again trashing hedge funds and their 2/20 model because these funds failed to beat the SPX. This...
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Jan 52 min read
What do James Cordier and Michael Saylor have in common?
People buying bitcoin with their hard earned dollars, even though they don't understand it and feel in their hearts that something is...
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Jan 42 min read

Monthly rollup | December 2024
Stocks Mentioned Valaris (VAL), Transocean (RIG), Seadrill (SDRL), Noble (NE), Borr Drilling (BORR), Saipem (SPM.MI), TotalEnergies...
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Jan 1, 202522 min read

Preparing for a Minsky Moment
My first degree was in engineering. I grew up liking the natural sciences and thought the social sciences were full of crap – too touchy...
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Dec 16, 20247 min read
Choose Crypto, Not Bitcoin Core
I made the below client presentation back in March to explain why I'm no longer bullish bitcoin even though I like crypto. Today morning,...
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Dec 14, 20246 min read

Monthly rollup | November 2024
Stocks Mentioned Nvidia (NVDA), Blackstone (BX), Resolute Mining (RSG.AX), Barrick (GOLD), B2Gold (BTG), Super Micro Computer (SMCI),...
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Dec 1, 202417 min read
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